Latest posts
NFL Draft Value Chart
Constructing surplus value from scratch.
Linguistic Analysis of NFL Prospect Reports
Analyzing the language of NFL.com draft prospect reports (2014-2023).
Exploring Quarterback Volatility with Gini Coefficients
Analyzing how volatile individual QB seasons are with gini coefficients and a volatility over expected (VOLoe) GAM model.
Evauluating defenses by how well they play the offense's WR 1
Cornerback performance is hard to measure, but we can try.
Estimating Team Ability From EPA
We build a series of models to estimate team ability from EPA data
Computer Vision with NFL Player Tracking Data using torch for R
Coverage classification Using CNNs.
NFL win probability from scratch using xgboost in R
xgboost and R
nflfastR EP, WP, CP xYAC, and xPass models
A description of the nflfastR Expected Points (EP), Win Probability (WP), Completion Probability (CP) Expected Yards after Catch (xYAC), and Expected Pass (xPass) models.
Gunslingers and Game Managers
Quantifying Quarterbacks' performance along the "game manager" and "gunslinger" dimensions.
Modeling NFL game outcomes using Python and scikit-learn
Use Python and scikit-learn to model NFL game outcomes and build a pre-game win probability model.
Exploring Stability and Predictive Power of Penalties in the NFL
Use nflfastR to calculate penalty EPA and understand the randomness of penalties to improve prediction accuracy of game outcomes
Analyzing Home Field Advantage in the NFL
Multi-season analysis of league and team-specific home-field advantage in the NFL.
Exploring Rolling Averages of EPA
Use nflfastR to develop lagged rolling averages of EPA to best predict a game's outcome
Still elite: What the numbers tell us about Aaron Rodgers
The more you look into the numbers, the better it looks for Aaron Rodgers
Receiving by Position
Breaking down the receiving game by position using nflfastR data.
Creating an Expected Field Goal Metric
Using nflfastR play-by-play data to measure kicker performance.
Estimating Run/Pass Tendencies with tidyModels and nflfastR
This article shows how to use tidyModels to predict QB dropbacks and uses a multilevel model to show which teams are run/pass heavy after accounting for game script
RERUN
Exonerating punters for long returns
Defense and rest time re-visited
Does incorporating actual rest time help us predict how a defense will do?
Calculating Expected Fantasy Points for Receivers
Use the nflfastR xYAC & CP models to calculate how many fantasy points an average receiver would expect to earn on each target.
Adding ESPN and 538 Game Predictions to nflfastR Data
Here, we'll look at how to scrape ESPN's and 538's pregame predictions and merge them into nflfastR data
Faceted and Animated Heatmaps
Combining lessons from multiple posts to create faceted or animated heatmaps.
Player Density and Completion Surface Estimates
Methods for modeling density estimates and expected completion percentages across the football field for individual players.
Fast Data Loading
Loading your nfl data at 10x speed!
Individual Expected Completion using Logistic Generalized Additive Mixed Models
Case study how to leverage Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM) to estimate the individual probability of completion per Quarterback as a random effect.
Open Source (Fantasy) Football: Visualizing TRAP Backs
Using nflfastR data to visualize where on the field running backs get their carries and how that translates to the Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage (TRAP) model.
Expected Turnovers for Quarterbacks
Building expected interceptions and expected fumbles models to find QBs likely to increase or decrease their interceptions and/or turnovers per dropback from 2019 to 2020.
Getting into sports analytics
Collection of short answers to common questions.
Visualizing EPSN's Total QBR Using Interactive Plots
How to get ESPN data and create interactive plots using the plotly ggplot2 library.
Exploring Wins with nflfastR
Looking at what metrics are important for predicting wins. Creating expected season win totals and comparing to reality.
Ranking QBs Using Era Adjusted Elo
Use 538's QB Elo value, a highly predictive measurement of QB impact, to compare QB careers across era
Game Excitement and Win Probability in the NFL
Game excitement calculation and a win probability figure.
NFL Pass Location Visualization
Methods for visualizing NFL passing location data.
Rodgers Efficiency Decline
A look into Rodgers Efficiency Decline. Also some functions for plotting EPA/CPOE moving averages.
Visualizing the Run/Pass Efficiency Gap
Using nflfastR data to show how much more efficient passing is than rushing at the team level
Adjusting EPA for Strength of Opponent
This article shows how to adjust a team's EPA per play for the strength of their opponent. The benefits of adjusted EPA will be demonstrated as well!
Python contributing example
Showing how to contribute using Python code
Matching players without ID keys
Rebuilding player graphs when ID keys go missing or are corrupted.
Neural Nets using R
Using Keras in R to build neural networks.
The accumulation of QB hits vs passing efficiency
Do quarterbacks who get hit see their performance decline throughout the game?
Wins Above Expectation
This article looks at the percentage of snaps with win probability over an arbitralily chosen critical value and compares it with the true win percentage.
PFR's Bad Throw Percentage for Quarterbacks
This article shows how to scrape football data from Pro Football Reference and how to plot the bad throw percentage data for quarterbacks.